Slate Overview
Matchup | Back-to-Back | Points (Halved) | Goals per Game Average, Expected Goals per Game, Shooting Percentage, Corsi for Percentage, Shots per Game Average | Goals Against per Game Average, Expected Goals Against per Game, Save Percentage, Corsi Against Percentage | Powerplay Percentage, Penalty Kill Percentage | Games Played Over Last 2 Seasons, Wins, Goals, Ceiling, Floor, Average | Vegas Odds | Win Percentage | Projection (WIP) | OveUnder Expectation
I didn’t have a lot of interest in last night and I’m glad I largely shied away from it. I boldly faded Atkinson and Hoffman’s linemates since they weren’t putting up shots and they were the ones to go off, for example. Though I did pick Andersen and Lundqvist, that’s about all that worked out for me. Not a big loss, but a loss nonetheless. Won a solid dollar on Fanduel ;)
I'm writing this early while it's slow at work, so I don't have confirmation of the lines or anything. That will obviously affect where I go tonight, so the current projections are somewhat vague.
OTT@PHI: I feel like Vegas is a little too hot on the Flyers tonight considering how atrocious their defense and goaltending has been and how tenacious the Sens are this season despite all odds. Firing Hextall over Hakstol seems more like a transcription error on the messenger’s part because he’s built a solid squad that should be performing better than they are. That’s the coach’s fault as far as I’m concerned. The Sens are leading the slate for shots against and expected goals against (and not in the good way) while the Flyers could have the extra motivation to perform well tonight. They’ve also scored a whopping twelve goals in the last two games vs the Sens, for whatever that’s worth. TL;DR it’s hard not to like either side of this, but I’d definitely lean toward PHI1 with the possibility for Gostisbehere to have at least two points tonight.
SJS@BUF: I’m having a hard time deciding if the Sabres run is legit right now. The numbers seem to suggest they’re being propped up by goaltending and defense while being largely average otherwise, though they’ve also improved their goaltending and acquired Rasmus fucking Dahlin, so that stands to reason. I definitely expect them to regress, it’s just a matter of how much. Could you risk Hutton for high upside in GPP’s tonight? Sure. Is that a serious gamble? Absolutely. The Sharks have had a floor of 3 goals against the Sabres in every matchup over the last two seasons and are second for xGF, Corsi and shots on the slate tonight. I’m always a fan of the narrative plays, so I’d expect Evander Kane has a strong showing here. The Sabres have not been getting any depth scoring and the Sharks have a great penalty killing unit, so I’m comfortable fading Eichel’s line tonight, though I understand why people would want to go there and wouldn’t try to talk you out of it.
CAR@MTL: I was excited about tonight’s slate simply because I’m a Habs fan and Weber is supposed to return tonight. As it turns out, Weber’s not even available on Fanduel and I’ll only be able to squeeze him into my DK lineups. The Canes aren’t exactly the best matchup here and his game might not be solid after almost a year off, but this should improve Carey Price’s numbers and, well, Weber’s own, since he’s actually on the ice again. This could also open up more opportunities for the forwards on PP1, since Weber’s slapshot must be respected and will draw defenders into his lane to open up cross ice passes, etc. Again, this is simply as a Habs homer, I don’t think Weber is a must play tonight or anything, but if the Canes have had a weakness this year it has been their penalty kill. It was traditionally Skinner who destroyed us here, though that’s no longer a problem I’d eye up whichever line you think matches up against Domi’s, or that Martinook line for value because I’m sure people already forgot about them. There was that hat trick the other night, their advanced metrics are insane and the Habs bottom six are being constantly shuffled lately, which could really open up opportunities for a solid third line for the Canes.
ANA@TBL: Kase finally jumped a whole grand on Fanduel on the night when I wouldn’t be too high on him at all, since he’s been dropped to the second line and is up against Hedman or McDonagh. Historically this has been a low scoring matchup, but that’s with a very small sample size since this is a conference matchup. I like the Lightning powerplay tonight, though that’s not without reservations. Again, I haven’t delved too deeply into this, but it’s interesting to me that Point seems to be able to perform well away from Kucherov, but Stamkos seems to be propped up by Kucherov a bit. Stammer’s taking less shots overall and doesn’t seem to be making his linemates shine either. That could be due to drawing away the top shutdown unit so Point and Kucherov can expose the opposition, but it is worth paying attention to as things go on. It’s seriously affected Stamkos’ value on DraftKings in particular if you’re looking for savings tonight.
COL@NSH: If there’s a matchup that advanced stats and historical data suggest is a lock tonight, it’s Rinne at home. My gut tells me this isn’t a safe bet though. With the numerous Preds injuries exposing their depth, and knowing that people don’t like to bet against the Preds at home, this might be a rare night where COL1 could go off and have a lower than average ownership. Outside of that, I still like Bonino for value. Though Watson has moved up to the top line, his shooting percentage is unsustainable and he’s not on the powerplay units. It won’t hurt you too much if you pick him and he underperforms, but I’m not high on him tonight.
ARI@MIN: It seems like every night the Coyotes are due for some positive regression, but I don’t think Schmaltz is going to be what ignites them. I like that they’ve reunited the Stepan/KellePanik line that performed so well for them at the end of the season, but right now I’m leaning toward Dubnyk in net for tonight. I guess MIN1 is in play because they actually have powerplay correlation, but I really wish they’d go back to how the lines were and I can roll with Parise/Koivu/Granlund + Dumba again. Dumba feels like a lock for me tonight if I can afford him though.
PIT@WPG: Everyone is going to be high on Laine tonight after the five goal game, and with good reason. His linemates still make his stack relatively affordable as well. The Pens have improved with the return of Crosby but they’re definitely not going to be able to shutdown the entire Jets offense tonight. This could easily go both ways and I wouldn’t be surprised by a 7-1 game or a 6-5 game really.
VGK@CHI: I take everything regarding Vegas with a grain of salt since last season was such an outlier, they haven’t been in the league that long and there’s just no consistency in general. VGK2 continues to be a solid option tonight, I believe. I was eyeing up Strome/Debrincat/Perlini, but it looks like that's not going to be a thing.
DAL@EDM: With Bishop out, I think you have to like Mcdavid/Draisaitl at home, and they've moved Chiasson up there who has powerplay correlation and value. Klefbom keeps getting shots on net but is not picking up any points. Is he due for a breakout or just making easy point shots? I have no idea. He’s not really worth his salary even if he does go off though IMO. I do have a lot more confidence in the Oilers since Koskinen is in net, otherwise DAL1 is in play for me (providing they don’t do another line shakeup.) The Oilers might play a bit harder to get the W for Hitchcock vs the Stars tonight as well.
LAK@VAN: What a dirty end to the night. It looks like Boeser might return with Pettersson tonight, which makes a great line with Goldobin on the other wing. That’s certainly to be a boost for the Canucks here. Edler's back in too and he should start playing bigger minutes and picking up all those assists and peripheral points again shortly. If you wanted to do a mini-stack with KopitaBrown/Doughty because you want correlation and don’t have a lot of cap space, I guess that makes sense, but… it’s not high on my radar, even with the Brown hat trick in the last game.
Top GPP goalies: Domingue, Price/McElhinney, Koskinen, Fleury, maybe Markstrom if you really want to dip down
Top cash goalie: Dubnyk (Edit: god damn you, Devan!)
TL;DR: I'll likely go with VGK2, VAN2 and maybe NSH3 for value with potential for WPG2, COL1, EDM1, SJS1, PHI1 to go off tonight. (But don't quote me on that.)
Edit: There's basically a consensus with Awesemo and Rotogrinders tonight pegging Flyers and Lightning as the chalky plays with "sneaky upside" for Vegas and Jets.
Sorry some of this info is outdated as the night has gone on, but it's been pretty quiet here so I don't know if anyone is actually reading anyway.
Good luck tonight!
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